IMF Study Maps AI Risk Across Philippine Workforce

A new IMF working paper published in 2025 offers the most detailed look yet at how artificial intelligence could reshape employment in the Philippines. Drawing on data from over 180,000 respondents in the Philippine Statistics Authority's October 2022 Labor Force Survey, researchers classified occupations by their degree of AI exposure and how likely AI is to augment versus replace the people doing those jobs.

The results are a mixed picture. Roughly one third of occupations in the Philippines are highly exposed to AI, meaning AI systems could already perform many of their core tasks. Of that group, 61% are rated as highly complementary: AI is expected to make workers in these roles more productive rather than push them out. The remaining 14% of the total workforce hold jobs where exposure is high but complementarity is low, placing them at real risk of displacement.

BPO Industry Sits in the High-Risk Column

For the Philippine BPO industry, the findings deserve close attention. BPO workers are classified as high-exposure with low complementarity, a combination that puts the sector on the wrong side of the ledger. In raw numbers, BPO workers account for only about 3% of total employment. But the sector contributes 7.4% of GDP, a share comparable in scale to overseas remittances. That makes any significant contraction in BPO employment a macro-level concern, not just an industry one.

The workers most exposed to AI across the broader economy tend to be college-educated, young, urban, female, and employed in services. These are also the people most likely to hold complementary roles, so their prospects are generally better than those of workers in routine, task-heavy positions. BPO agents, however, sit in a specific occupational band where AI tools are already capable of handling core functions, and where the human judgment premium is lower.

Businesses considering BPO directory partners should factor AI readiness into vendor selection, as providers investing in reskilling and AI integration will be better placed to maintain service quality through this transition.

Government Has a Roadmap, But No Law Yet

The Philippine government is not standing still. The National AI Strategy Roadmap, first released in 2021 and updated in 2024, sets out a national vision for AI development and adoption. Agencies including the DICT and DTI have active roles in implementation. The IMF paper notes this progress while flagging that the country still lacks a comprehensive AI legal framework, which creates uncertainty for businesses planning long-term investments in AI-enabled services.

  • One third of Philippine occupations are highly exposed to AI
  • 14% of all workers face displacement risk due to low complementarity
  • BPO jobs are classified as high-exposure, low-complementarity
  • The BPO sector contributes 7.4% of GDP, on par with remittances
  • The National AI Strategy Roadmap was updated in 2024, but no AI law exists yet

What This Means for the Sector

The IMF analysis is a call to action rather than a verdict. The BPO sector has adapted before, shifting from voice to non-voice, from data entry to complex back-office work. The question now is whether companies and workers can move quickly enough toward roles where human skill and AI capability reinforce each other. Government policy, industry investment in reskilling, and clear regulatory signals will all shape how that transition unfolds.